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There are 3 major theories as to why Mike Lynch’s Bayesian yacht sank so fast

On Thursday, Italian authorities retrieved a fifth body from the Bayesian superyacht that sank in a storm earlier this week, killing British technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch. 

The 184-foot British-flagged vessel sank early Monday , and the five identified bodies thus far from the incident include Mike Lynch , founder of Autonomy and investor in Darktrace; Morgan Stanley Bank International chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, Judy; Chris Morvillo, a Clifford Chance lawyer, and his wife, Neda, were also found. Lynch’s 18-year-old daughter Hannah is still missing.

There are several theories as to why the massive $39 million boat sank in just about 60 seconds. And the maker of the ship says the crew should have had time to rescue passengers. 

Theory one: The mast was pushed over by the wind

The first theory is that the mast on the massive vessel was so tall it tipped the boat over when a waterspout— essentially a water tornado —hit the boat. Giovanni Costantino , CEO of the Italian Sea Group , which owns several boat brands including the yacht’s builder, Perini Navi , told the Financial Times the boat was “designed to be absolutely stable” because it had the “world’s second-tallest mast.” But Karsten Borner, the skipper of a nearby boat, suggests the sinking actually could have been caused by high winds hitting the 236-foot mast. Even with sails stowed, the mast and its rigging would have provided a vast surface area for wind resistance. 

The Bayesian “went flat [with the mast] on the water, and then went down,” Borner told Reuters . For reference, the tallest mast on a sailing boat on record was the Mirabella V at nearly 247 feet long, according to Guinness World Records .

Theory two: The retractable keel was in the wrong position

The second theory about the cause of the Bayesian sinking is that the keel was retracted when it should have been lowered, making the boat less stable. The keel is a structural beam that runs under the middle of the boat from bow to stern, giving the boat better stability, a lower center of gravity in the water, and more control while moving forward. “Without the keel, a boat might slip or skim on the water,” according to boat manufacturer Sea Born .

The Bayesian had a keel that could be retracted, according to the yacht’s manufacturer, Perini Navi. It could be lifted to reduce the draught of the boat, making it easier to enter shallow harbors. It’s possible that if the keel had been in the raised position rather than extended, that could have compromised the boat’s stability in a strong wind, causing it to sink.

Theory three: A major hatch was left open to the waves

Perhaps the strongest theory so far is the notion that someone onboard may have left a major hatch or door ajar, causing the boat to quickly fill with water. In fact, Costantino thinks this is the strongest theory after watching back footage of the sinking; the rear of the boat appears to have a hinged door that folds down into a sea-level deck.

Since it was obvious the Bayesian was taking on water, there should have been time to get everyone off the boat and into rafts, Costantino told the FT .

“Jesus Christ! The hull is intact. The water came in from [hatchways] left open,” he said. “There is no other possible explanation. If maneuvered properly, the boat would have comfortably handled the weather—comfortably,” he said.

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The 80-metre Bilgin Yachts Tatiana is the first of three 80-metre Bilgin 263 superyachts to be built by the Turkish yard. The 1,670 GT vessel which springs from the drawing boards of Unique Yacht Design  with interiors by H2.

With eco-friendly elements built into the core of the vessel’s design, motor yacht Tatiana was built in accordance with the latest IMO Tier III standards and comes fitted with a special exhaust system for “100% clean air emissions,” according to her builder.

Tatiana’s contemporary layout incorporates generous living areas, with a huge spa and a beach club located on the aft deck. Accommodation is offered for up to 12 guests across eight staterooms, including an owner’s cabin on its own dedicated deck, four additional guest staterooms located on the main deck and one guest stateroom (as well as two crew cabins) on the lower deck. Guests are looked after by a 25 person strong crew.

Jonny Horsfield explains the concept behind Tatiana's interior design: "If we speak about Tatiana, the theme of the interior is based on a light but rich palette while the design is definitely crisp and contemporary in fee. The design can be described as layers of luxury modern. We wanted to achieve an open, airy feel for a clean, sleek look. So the best option was to use light and textured luxury materials. With her sharp, crisp interior lines giving that feel of modernity, we made extensive use of a contrasting combination of rich Macassar veneer and a light eucalyptus, while a book match pattern and gloss finish give a luxurious feel.This is combined with plenty of marble and touches of detail such as backlight marble, 3D carved stone, and strong textures."

One standout area on board Tatiana can be found in her aft deck beach club. As the epicentre of the yacht, it is directly connected to the main saloon via a staircase and comes complete with a 9-metre swimming pool (with skylights allowing in ample natural light) as well as a wealth of amenities, including a bar, sunbeds, hammam and a massage room.

Guests can make the most of a plethora of amenities on board Tatiana, including her fully-equipped gym with sauna on the portside lower deck as well as a large movie theatre. Ideally set up for both work and play, Tatiana also comes complete with a private office on the bridge deck and a skylounge which is themed as a sports bar.

In addition to her generous beach club – which is connected to the main saloon and offers ample space to host social gatherings  – Tatiana also comes stocked with a variety of tenders and toys on the front deck to enable guests to truly make the most of their time on the water.

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H2 Yacht Design

H2 Yacht Design was established in 1994 specialising in the interior design and exterior styling of superyachts. The director Jonny Horsfield and senior consultants have between them over 30 years experience in the yacht industry during which time they have been involved in over 100 superyacht projects.

The Complete Yacht Design Service The H2 design team offer a wealth of expertise in every aspect of yacht design together with a vast library of fabrics, finishes and fittings, making them ideally placed to fulfil the diverse needs and requirements of their clients.

H2 Yacht Design is committed to developing solutions with the attention to detail in order to deliver distinctive and successful projects, working closely with clients to translate their dreams into reality.  Careful consideration is given to every element ensuring that the design features are accurately realised and that the completed environment exceeds all expectations.

The experienced team offer a world-wide experience and outstanding creativity, which together with comprehensive project management skills embrace every aspect of the design process.

H2 Yacht Design are based in London giving them access to the finest selections of fabrics and furniture as well as the latest trends in interior design.

H2 Yacht Design Services include : - Conceptual proposals - Exterior design - Interior design with detailed material selections - CAD drawings and computer generated animations - On-site supervision - Product acquisition and shipping

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I-680 Northbound Sunol Express Lanes

Santa clara and alameda counties, ca.

The I-680 Northbound Sunol Express Lanes will be constructed in phases and includes widening 15 miles of freeway, pavement rehabilitation, 64 overhead sign structures, new auxiliary lanes, 14 bridge modifications, bridge rehabilitation, 45 new retaining walls, sound wall replacement, extensive safety lighting, ramp metering modifications, and an integrated electronic toll collection system. Right-of-way requirements include 13 property acquisitions, and utility relocations. A continuous access express lane facility is proposed and will be operated and enforced in consistence with the other express lane projects in the Bay Area Regional Express Lane network.

Notably, the PID document was approved in 9 months; EIR (CEQA) / complex EA (NEPA) document was approved in 33 months; and PS&E for Phase 1 was completed in 15 months.

The WMH Team received commendations from Alameda CTC staff and elected officials for the tremendous commitment to deliver this vital project under an accelerated schedule.

California Department of Transportation

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Mike Lynch and daughter among missing after yacht sinks: What we know about disaster - and 'alarming' potential cause

The British-flagged luxury vessel named Bayesian was carrying 22 people when it got into difficulty off the coast of Sicily. Seven bodies have now been recovered from the wreckage.

News reporter @samuelosborne93

Friday 23 August 2024 12:24, UK

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Seven bodies have been found after a superyacht sank off the coast of Sicily.

Twenty-two people were on board the vessel named Bayesian when it got into difficulty in the early hours of Monday, with 15 people rescued.

Here's what we know about the sinking of the luxury vessel so far.

Follow latest updates on the superyacht sinking

What might have caused the sinking?

The British-flagged luxury vessel, named Bayesian, capsized at around 4.30am local time on Monday morning off Palermo, according to ship-tracking site Marine Traffic.

It sank in as little as 60 seconds with 22 people on board, 12 passengers and a crew of 10, according to the Italian coastguard.

Waterspouts, essentially tornados that form over water, were seen as powerful winds battered the area overnight, local media said.

The yacht may have sunk faster with all the doors open due to the hot weather, Sailing Today magazine editor Sam Jefferson has said.

"I imagine all the doors were open because it was hot, so there were enough hatches and doors open that it filled with water very quickly and sank like that," he said.

Official pictures show air conditioning units in several of the rooms, however, which could counter the suggestion open windows caused the vessel to sink faster.

The huge mast is also likely to have played a role, he added.

What are waterspouts?

Waterspouts typically occur during thunderstorms and can develop very rapidly, within minutes.

Their spin generally reaches wind speeds between 75-200mph, but can reach as high as 300mph.

They can travel at about 10-20mph typically but can reach greater speeds, making them difficult to avoid - especially in something as slow-moving as a yacht.

Matthew Schanck, chair of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, called the reports of a tornado or waterspout "rare" and "quite alarming".

"The vessel was at anchor in a recognised anchorage," Mr Schanck said.

"Depending on wind direction and the state of the sea, this informs the captain whether it is a safe area to anchor or not. There was nothing that was too concerning, for my eye. All in all, the captain used the information they had to make a safe call."

Who owns the yacht?

The yacht belonged to the family of British tech tycoon Mike Lynch. He was confirmed to have died after rescuers found his body on Thursday. Mr Lynch was on holiday with his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, who is still missing, and his wife Angela Bacares, who was rescued.

Mr Lynch, 59, was known as the " British Bill Gates " and has been in the headlines in recent months over a high-profile fraud case.

In June, a US jury cleared him of all charges, which were related to the 2011 sale of his software company Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard (HP). The yacht trip is believed to have been a celebration of the end of Mr Lynch's legal troubles.

HP accused him of deliberately overstating the value of the company before it was acquired by the American tech giant.

Mr Lynch was extradited to the US to face trial in May last year and spent 13 months under house arrest in San Francisco as he awaited trial on 17 charges of conspiracy and wire fraud brought by the US Department of Justice - which were later reduced to 15 charges. He always denied any wrongdoing and was acquitted.

Read more: Lynch's co-defendant dies days before yacht sinking

Who was on board when the boat sank?

The passengers were largely British and American, with crew members were from New Zealand, South Africa, and Canada.

Charlotte Golunski was among the Britons rescued. Her LinkedIn profile says she is a partner at Mr Lynch's firm Invoke Capital and has worked there since 2012.

Speaking after the ordeal, Ms Golunski told Italian media that she lost her daughter Sofia for "two seconds" amid the "fury" of the sea but was able to retrieve her. She said she held the infant above the waves until the lifeboat was ready.

"Many people screamed. Luckily the lifeboat inflated and 11 of us were able to get on board," she told ANSA.

The girl's father James Emsley also survived, according to Sicily's civil protection agency.

Also on board were Jonathan Bloomer, chairman of investment bank Morgan Stanley, his wife Judy Bloomer, a top US lawyer Chris Morvillo, who worked on Mr Lynch's criminal case, and his wife Neda Morvillo. Divers confirmed on Thursday that their bodies had been recovered.

The yacht's captain James Cutfield survived, along with South African crew members Leah Randall and Katja Chicken.

Recaldo Thomas, a Canadian-Antiguan chef who was working on the boat, was the first to be found dead, the Italian Coastguard confirmed to Sky News.

During rescue efforts, divers saw "corpses through the portholes" of the wreck as they recovered the body of a man at a depth of 50m (164ft), according to Salvo Cocina, the head of the Civil Protection of Sicily.

What do we know about the vessel?

The Bayesian is owned by a company controlled by Mr Lynch's wife.

It was known for its unusual 72.3m (246ft) single mast - one of the world's tallest made of aluminium - and shared its name with the statistical method Mr Lynch's Autonomy software was based on.

It was built by Italian company Perini Navi in 2008 and last refitted in 2020.

It was listed for rent for up to €195,000 (£166,000) a week, according to online charter sites.

The luxury vessel , which was managed by yachting company Camper & Nicholsons, could accommodate up to 12 guests in six suites.

It won a string of awards for its design, according to online specialist yacht sites.

Mr Schanck, of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, said the vessel would have been equipped with "high standard" life-saving appliances and radio communications.

He added the yacht would have met all international standards and UK Maritime Coastguard Agency regulations before its voyage.

It was previously named Salute, or "health" in Italian, when it flew under a Dutch flag. Its minimalist interior featured light wood with Japanese accents designed by the French designer Remi Tessier, according to descriptions on charter sites.

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What were its last movements?

The boat left the Sicilian port of Milazzo on 14 August and was last tracked east of Palermo on Sunday evening, with a navigation status of "at anchor", according to vessel tracking site VesselFinder.

The Bayesian previously travelled to other parts of Sicily before its last sighting off the coast of the port of Porticello.

On Sunday, the boat was seen off the coast of Cefalu before it travelled towards Porticello, MarineTraffic data shows.

In the days before, the yacht travelled around four of the Aeolian islands, just north of Sicily.

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Prosecutors in the nearby town of Termini Imerese have opened an investigation into the sinking.

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